Markets Don’t Like Maybes — But Trump Might Be Playing 4D Chess. Global markets flinched this week—and not because of earnings. Oil’s spiking, stocks are sliding, and investors are suddenly hugging the dollar like a life raft. Why? A potential U.S. move into the Israel-Iran conflict has everyone on edge.

President Trump’s message? “I may do it. I may not do it.” Translation: Stay ready. The U.S. is keeping its options open while allies and adversaries scramble to guess the next move. Behind closed doors, Bloomberg reports that senior officials are preparing for a possible strike—just in case. Strategic ambiguity is the play, and markets are reacting accordingly.

At the same time, central bankers are trying to keep the wheels from wobbling. The Fed held rates steady but flagged that tariff-fueled inflation could be coming. Chair Powell didn’t promise easing, but he didn’t rule it out either. The Bank of England also paused, warning trade uncertainty is dragging down growth. Norway surprised with a cut. Switzerland trimmed rates to zero but didn’t go negative, which gave the franc a modest lift.

Meanwhile, oil jumped 11% this week, with Brent crude touching $77.40 a barrel—its highest since January. Gold ticked higher. Platinum popped to an 11-year high near $1,300 as investors looked for cheaper hedges. European stocks dropped for the third straight day, pushing the STOXX 600 down 2.5% on the week. U.S. futures slipped 0.5%, though Wall Street was mostly quiet for the holiday. The dollar strengthened noticeably, gaining ground as investors sought refuge, while the euro and risk-linked currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi sagged.

Bottom line: Markets are jittery, but the White House isn’t acting out of impulse. Trump’s moves suggest leverage, not chaos. While investors seek shelter in the strengthening dollar and central banks tread carefully, the U.S. is positioning itself with flexibility and force. The message? Don’t mistake patience for inaction—or ambiguity for weakness.