Here’s the deal: Jefferies just dropped a Street-low price target on Starbucks—$76 a share—and slapped the stock with a big fat “Underperform” rating.

Translation? They don’t believe the turnaround story, and they think Starbucks is overpriced by about 18%.

Let’s zoom out. The stock’s up 13% over the last 3 months. On paper, that looks decent. But Jefferies says investors are drinking the Kool-Aid (or cold brew) a little too fast. Because underneath the hood, sales are down, margins aren’t improving, and the fancy “turnaround plan” isn’t doing much turning.

Oh—and consumer spending? Still weak.

Meanwhile, Starbucks is doubling down on its corporate culture… sort of. Starting in October, corporate employees will be required to come into the office 4 days a week (up from 3). If they don’t want to? They can take a cash buyout and leave. Bold move, but it also screams: “We need a reset, and fast.”

CEO Laxman Narasimhan is trying to put the Schultz era in the rearview mirror. He’s increased staffing at stores, changed up customer service policies, and is now asking HQ teams to “move faster” by being back in person. But let’s be real—none of that matters if the numbers don’t back it up.

Last quarter? Sales fell 1%.

So here’s the unfiltered version:

Starbucks is still a strong brand. But brand equity only carries you so far when your fundamentals are sliding, your costs are rising, and your strategy looks more like a corporate memo than a growth plan.

Would I bet against Starbucks long term? Not necessarily.

Would I be deploying fresh capital here while Wall Street’s calling out a valuation bubble and zero margin improvement?

Not a chance.

Investor note: Hot coffee ≠ hot stock. Sometimes it pays to sit, sip, and wait for a better entry.