Oracle didn’t just stumble today—it face-planted. The stock plunged nearly 14%, and it wasn’t because of some dramatic earnings blow-up. No, the real story is the kind of aggressive spending that screams: we’re either about to dominate the AI frontier… or we’re lighting billions on fire.

Revenue came in a hair short of expectations. EPS crushed it. None of that mattered. Because then Oracle unveiled the monster: $12 billion in capex for the quarter. Triple last year. 50% above forecasts. And a new full-year spending target of $50B.

When a company starts spending like a drunken sailor, ask yourself one thing: Whose growth are they actually funding?

In this case, it’s OpenAI—yes, the same OpenAI that’s burning cash and trying to scale faster than anyone in history. They’re supposedly on the hook to pay Oracle $300B over five years. If that number makes you blink, you’re not alone. If OpenAI can’t pull that off, Oracle isn’t just “investing in AI.” They’re building data centers on a fault line.

The market got the hint. Tech wobbled. The Nasdaq sagged. The Dow ripped to a new high anyway, because money always finds a safer home when something smells off.

Here’s the real takeaway: AI is the new gold rush. And like every gold rush, someone sells the shovels, someone strikes it rich… and someone ends up overextended, overleveraged, and praying the hype is real.

Right now, Oracle looks a lot like the player betting the whole farm that the boom won’t slow down.