Markets: Flinching. Economy: Flexing.
Sep 25, 2025
The market slipped Thursday—but it wasn’t because the sky’s falling. It’s because the data was too good. Yeah, welcome to the upside-down.
Jobless claims came in lower than expected. GDP for Q2? Revised up to 3.8% growth. Translation: the U.S. economy is still humming along. That’s great for Main Street… but it complicates things for Wall Street, which has been betting on Fed rate cuts to keep the market rally rolling.
Now the Fed is split. Some voices—like Chicago’s Goolsbee—want to hit the brakes and wait inflation out. Others—like new Fed Governor Stephen Miran—are publicly calling for faster rate cuts, saying high rates are a bigger threat to growth. When central bankers start disagreeing in interviews, you know things are getting interesting.
Here’s the kicker: a strong economy should be good news. But in this environment, strength delays cuts. Cuts juice markets. No juice? No rally. So we stall.
The play? Don’t get caught trading headlines. The real signal is under the noise: this economy is more resilient than the fear-mongers would have you believe. Rate cuts may come slower—but the foundation is still solid. Stay tactical, stay curious, and don’t mistake a pause for a pivot.