AUM Navigator Weekly Report  - 

Week of Sept 18th, 2025

Market Status: Bullish Power

• Long-Term Trend: Up 

• Short-Term Trend: Up

• Momentum: Increasing

• Price Action:   Upside

Investors Eye Dip-Buying Opportunity as Fed Signals Risk Management Cut

Wall Street appeared eager to scoop up Wednesday’s modest pullback, with the S&P 500 (+0.60%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.08%) rebounding after a Fed outcome that struck some as less dovish than expected.

At issue was Chair Jerome Powell’s characterization of the quarter-point cut as “risk management.” Some read that as a signal the Fed views its action as precautionary—implying fewer cuts ahead. Goldman Sachs, however, pushed back, noting Powell all but telegraphed an October move.

JPMorgan’s trading desk doubled down on its bullish call, urging clients to buy dips ahead of what they describe as a potentially “explosive” rally. The team called Wednesday’s move “the dovish cut we were looking for,” adding that two more are on the Fed’s roadmap for 2025. “These insurance cuts are supportive of the bull case, especially in light of stronger-than-expected retail sales,” they wrote.

The data calendar could prove decisive. JPMorgan points to September nonfarm payrolls (Oct. 3) and CPI (Oct. 15) as potential catalysts. “If jobs rebound after two weak prints and inflation stays contained, equities could explode higher into a strong third-quarter earnings season,” the team said. For those eyeing 7,000 on the S&P 500—roughly 4% away—that’s “the first part of the formula.”

A stronger dollar on the back of that data would, they argue, extend the rally to international equities, particularly emerging markets (EEM -0.52%).

Even so, Powell’s press conference “skewed hawkishly,” JPMorgan acknowledged, citing his “risk management” phrasing. Still, “the press conference does not change our view that any/all dips should be bought,” said Tyler and his team at JP Morgan, though they noted low conviction around near-term weakness into month- and quarter-end.

Seasonal headwinds remain top of mind. September and October are historically treacherous months for stocks. Yet investors buying April’s selloff proved prescient, with the S&P 500 now up 2.17% in September, on pace for its strongest month since July’s similar gain. On average, the index has fallen 1.17% in September, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

So the question becomes: where are the sellers in this supposedly “fearful” September? If JPMorgan is right, the answer may not appear until after Q3 earnings hit in late October—by which time equities could already be breaking higher.

This is why the AUM Navigator is so powerful!  It will tell us when the sellers kick in so we can make the moves ahead of the headlines!